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Jury Theorems

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[New Entry by Franz Dietrich and Kai Spiekermann on November 17, 2021.] Jury theorems are mathematical theorems about the ability of collectives to make correct decisions. Several jury theorems carry the optimistic message that, in suitable circumstances, "crowds are wise": many individuals together (using, for instance, majority voting) tend to make good decisions, outperforming fewer or just one individual. Jury theorems form the technical core of epistemic arguments for democracy, and provide probabilistic tools for reasoning about the epistemic quality of collective decisions. The popularity of...

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News source: Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy

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