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The epidemic in the US: a comment by the virologist Guido Silvestri

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Many have noted the spike in the number of coronavirus cases observed in the United States. The fear is, obviously, that this increase will result in a corresponding spike in the number of deaths after some delay. The virologist Guido Silvestri wrote a comment in Italian on Facebook about the situation and I thought it was interesting to translate it in its entirety and post it here. This translation is made by smoothing a Google-translated text and it remains rough, but I verified that it maintains the meaning of the original. This text was written a few days ago and, so far, we saw no large changes in the trends of cases and deaths in the US. But, as Dr. Silvestri himself says, we need to wait a few more days in order to see if the spike will continue and result in an increase in the number of victims. On this subject, see also this post by Chuck Pezhensky.COVID-19: SITUATION IN AMERICABy Guido SilvestriJune 28 at 7:51 AM Many ask me to talk about the situation of the COVID-19 epidemic in the US. I try in these lines to start from the data, without making political considerations. Science, always science, and very strongly science, as you and I like it :)First of all, I would start from the curve that you see in the graph, above. Today (28 June), it was the second-highest day in terms of number of cases (yesterday was the highest ever). So it is clear that we are in full pandemic with many new cases diagnosed, especially in the large southern states (CA, TX, AR, FL, GA etc). Not that it is a subject not discussed at length, but it is good to start from these data.It is equally clear that we are not experiencing the Apocalypse. In fact, if you look at the graph of daily deaths (above, lower graph) you can see that today was the 85th worst day since the beginning of the epidemic - which is not so bad since everything started here early March 2020. As far as I know, there is also no sign of the hospital overload seen in the past in Wuhan, Lombardy, New York / New. . .

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